• MICHAEL LOFTUS

Week of 9/9/19 - Signal Update





Short Term - I will call last week, Headline driven. There really was no data that has changed our outlook, just more headlines about a China Meeting. I think everyone know where I stand on this...No Deal for you! I have said in the past, that short term signals can be volatile, so I look for additional confirmation before adding. The only holding I added to last week was Gold, on a pullback. After a month of waiting, finally hit my price target.





Mid-Term - We did see a little improvement, coming back into the wedge. But momentum has negative, which keeps us ion the sidelines.




Long-Term - Relative Strength sloping down(Top of Chart), with S&P going up. This is called Negative divergence. Still no resolution on momentum, so we are staying in our neutral stance.





I have spoken about a peak in September of 2018, we see another confirmation on this from unemployment report. September of '18 our 3 month average was 241k jobs, 6 month average was 228k. Last Friday our 3 month average was 156k and our 6 month average was 150k. You can not deny that is not a good trend. This is also more reason for our current stance on portfolio construction.


As always, it's a good time to #staynimble.



Michael




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