Week of 10/7/19 - Signal Update

This past week I had lunch with client and he asked why I was so negative?! I told him I wasn't, in fact I am almost fully invested. As you'll see by the Chart below, we are still in a Cyclical Bull Market. But within any Bull, you can have corrections(Last fall) and cycles. What we are trying to do is to navigate the cycles and that is why is why we are heavy in Bonds, Bond Proxies and Gold. As the cycles change, we will.

Short Term -Neutral, negative bias - No surprise we had a bounce late in the week, after oversold conditions. Th employment report can be looked at in different ways, bullish or bearish, the markets chose the former. Terrible volume tells us no conviction. With earnings season about to kick in, we'll stick with our signal.

Mid-Term - Still below the wedge and momentum has stalled, this reaffirms our negative view on the mid term.

Long-Term - Relative Strength sloping down(Top of Chart), with S&P going up. This is called Negative divergence. Momentum just can't turn above the red line, so we are still negative.

The Fed continues to behind the curve(Again) and now continuing to pump in 75 Billion daily, thru 11/11. Not a good sign....Stay nimble and pick your sectors wisely. For us Bonds, Bond Proxies and Gold have been a good place to be.

As always, it's a good time to #staynimble.

Michael

Week of 9/23/19 - Signal Update

Short Term - Muddy Waters - In our most recent video, I discussed that although we have hit the higher end of the markets, my call was for a reversal. Although Friday was down(With Big Volume), we have just muddled along. With earnings season getting closer and the Fed behind the curve, it's a time for patience. Volatility(VIX) back above 15, it's not a good time to add to equities.

Mid-Term - Back below the wedge and momentum has stalled, this reaffirms our negative view on the mid term.

Long-Term - Relative Strength sloping down(Top of Chart), with S&P going up. This is called Negative divergence. Momentum just can't turn above the red line, so we are still negative.

With a Fed behind the curve(Again), having to pump 75 Billion a day into the system for liquidity(Until 10/10) and and expected negative earnings seasons....Stay nimble and pick your sectors wisely. For us Bonds, Bond Proxies and Gold have been a good place to be.

As always, it's a good time to #staynimble.

Michael

Week of 9/9/19 - Signal Update

Short Term - I will call last week, Headline driven. There really was no data that has changed our outlook, just more headlines about a China Meeting. I think everyone know where I stand on this...No Deal for you! I have said in the past, that short term signals can be volatile, so I look for additional confirmation before adding. The only holding I added to last week was Gold, on a pullback. After a month of waiting, finally hit my price target.

Mid-Term - We did see a little improvement, coming back into the wedge. But momentum has negative, which keeps us ion the sidelines.

Long-Term - Relative Strength sloping down(Top of Chart), with S&P going up. This is called Negative divergence. Still no resolution on momentum, so we are staying in our neutral stance.

I have spoken about a peak in September of 2018, we see another confirmation on this from unemployment report. September of '18 our 3 month average was 241k jobs, 6 month average was 228k. Last Friday our 3 month average was 156k and our 6 month average was 150k. You can not deny that is not a good trend. This is also more reason for our current stance on portfolio construction.

As always, it's a good time to #staynimble.

Michael